Why the Promoted Teams are struggling in the Premier League...
... and why history keeps repeating itself (for the most part).
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Now that’s all out of the way, let’s get into it….
As of the time of writing, all three of the promoted teams (Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town) are on a single point.
Sheffield United have played six games while Burnley and Luton have played five (they face each other next week after their initial fixture was delayed). Still, even this early on, it is not outlandish to suggest that any of them has a chance of beating Derby’s infamous record from 2009 (finishing on a record-low 11 points in 2009).
A simple explanation would be that they are the promoted teams so they are expected to struggle in the Premier League, but I feel like that’s the cop-out answer.
There are clear issues displayed by each of these teams which constantly plague newly promoted outfits and the combination of them could create the perfect storm of mediocrity.
So that’s what we’re going to discuss in this week’s Played on Paper. We are not hailing the beautiful game, but rather dissecting how an attempt to achieve success in it can all go wrong.
So with that in mind let’s start with:
The Lack of a Guaranteed Goal-Getter (All 3 Teams to some extent)
This may seem too early to call, but I’m not that impressed by the striking options at the former Championship clubs this season.
When the likes of Sunderland and Blackburn were fighting the drop they had the likes of Steven Fletcher and Danny Graham hitting around 15 goals to carry them over the line but who takes up this role in each of 23/24’s hopeful remainers?
Luton have Carlton Morris leading the line who was impressive in the Championship, but he has only scored penalties so far in his opening five games. And if he’s not getting the goals I doubt Chiedozie Ogbene, Cauley Woodrow or Elijah Adebayo will pick up the slack.
Sheffield United bought Cameron Archer from Aston Villa this summer and he looked bright in his opening few games but I doubt he will be as effective as the guy he was brought in to replace, Iliman Ndiaye.
Ndiaye wasn’t a striker but he was the attacking heartbeat of this Sheffield United side during the 22/23 campaign, scoring 14 goals and registering 11 assists. However, he forced his way out of the club this summer to move to Olympique Marseille.
Without him, Paul Heckingbottom’s team look disjointed and while Archer might be able to shoulder the task, at 21 he shouldn’t be expected to.
Of all three teams, I think Burnley has the best chance of one of their strikers successfully leading the line (however their abundance of riches upfront could cause its own problems).
Lyle Foster, before he got himself sent off, has looked impressive and while Zeki Admouni hasn’t hit the ground running at Turf Moor, he did score 22 goals for Basel last season, including seven goals in the UEFA Conference League.
The Shellshock of Not Being the Best (Burnley)
Burnley dominated the Championship last season earning 101 points and securing promotion and the title with ease.
Vincent Kompany’s tactics had a big part to play in the Clarets’ success; the former Manchester City defender followed in his former manager Pep Guardiola’s footsteps and implemented a possession-heavy style of play.
So why is this now a problem? Shouldn’t trying to play better football translate into playing better in a more technical league?
Well, it’s one thing playing possession-based football when you’re among the best teams in the league, but it’s much more difficult when you’re a newly promoted side and among the worst.
Burnley only had the majority of possession in one game so far this season (against Manchester United but ironically they still lost) but still seem to be committed to their ideals of trying to play football ‘the right way.’
This will make them suffer in the long term.
We have seen it in the past with the likes of Norwich (twice), who came up playing an exciting and attacking brand of possession football, but completely fell flat on their face when greeted with this reality check.
If Burnley were to avoid relegation this season, maybe they could take steps to re-implement their possession style as they strengthen their squad with PL Broadcast money, but as it stands I think they need to adapt their style of play to secure survival this season.
But for Sheffield United and Luton, this isn’t the case. They face another common problem.
Money (Sheffield United and Luton)
*insert poignant lyric from the Pink Floyd song of the same name*
You unfortunately can’t escape the undeniable truth that having access to money allows you to succeed in the Premier League.
You still need to spend it correctly, but having a certain amount available to you allows you to operate on the same playing field as the rest of the teams in the Premier League.
However, given the massive increase in broadcast revenue Premier League clubs have seen as of late, the threshold for entry is rising year on year.
Teams like Wolves, Nottingham Forest and Brentford have shown what an injection of cash combined with an airtight strategy can do to transform a Championship club into a Premier League regular and the same could also apply to the likes of Brighton and Bournemouth.
Sheffield United and Luton however do not have this luxury.
Sheffield United suffered a loss of £15m last season and spent the summer selling off their best assets not only to clubs with loftier ambitions but also direct rivals (Sander Berge to Burnley).
They were able to make some signings, most notably the aforementioned Archer and Gustavo Hamer, but they weren’t able to fully overhaul the squad in the way they needed to to get ready for a season in the top tier.
It’s like shopping in Tesco while everyone else in the bottom half gets to shop in Waitrose. However, Luton by comparison you’d find exclusively looking in the clearance section.
Luton spent under £20m this summer with only one player (Marvellous Nakamba who was on loan at the Hatters last season) coming from a top-flight club in exchange for a transfer fee.
Combine this with their squad that was also assembled on a tight budget and you don’t see how they can survive, but maybe that’s the point of their low spend.
Luton have made their way up the tiers playing it safe financially and even if they were to get relegated at the end of this season, they would be provided with a massive cash injection with the combination of PL broadcast money and parachute payments.
If they assemble a strong squad with this money by Championship standards and then come straight back up next season, then they’ll have a better financial platform to compete in the 25/26 campaign.
However, as it stands, they may have to suffer some humiliation in the short term to benefit in the long.
Right Place, Wrong Time (All Three Clubs)
If these three clubs had been promoted last year, we might be having a different conversation about their chances of survival.
The bottom half of the Premier League in the 22/23 campaign was a car crash, with several teams seemingly looking to outdo each other as the most unserious outfit.
In the end, Southampton, Leeds and Leicester City were all relegated, with all three promoted sides (Fulham, Forest and Bournemouth) staying up.
While the teams involved in this crime against the beautiful game have not completely got their act together, they have to some extent tried to improve their management on and off the pitch.
This means that it’s unlikely that the three promoted sides will get lucky and be able to leapfrog the likes of Everton or Wolves and stay in the Premier League ahead of them.
However it’s still early doors as I said at the start of this article, and with the number of injuries spiralling out of control and the possibility for one game to change everything, anything could happen.