Erik Ten Months? I don't think so
How Erik ten Hag bounced back from the 4-0 loss to Brentford which left United fans worried.
“Not one of the other big clubs in Europe was chasing him. Not one. So why did United dive in headlong now? As I write Poch, looks as though he’ll be on the market. I still don’t believe Conte is in for the long haul at Spurs. There are so many other options. But it’s done. Ten Months has got his work cut out and I fear he’ll go the same way as the others.” - Richard Keys, writing for his blog in April as Ten Hag was announced
As United sat at the bottom of the table after a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Brentford, there was an uneasy feeling among the United fanbase.
What Keys had written in April was in bad faith; Ten Hag hadn’t even laid the cones out for his first training session when he said it, but buried beneath the layers of strange discourse there was a single nugget of genuine concern.
Pre-Ten Hag, United were a mess. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s reign as manager had ended in a car crash, and instead of quelling the flames, it seemed like Ralf Rangnick’s time as interim had just poured more fuel onto the fire.
Walking in on this wreckage, it seemed that Ten Hag would need something that manager’s nowadays are often not afforded - time. Watching United lose 4-0 to Brentford in their second match of the season and drop to the bottom of the table only emphasised that fear.
Some even went so far as to downgrade the manager from 10 Months to 10 Weeks. Frank de Boer’s name began to be positioned in the same sentences.
But Keys made that statement on April 25th 2022, just over 10 months ago, and fast forward today and United under Ten Hag have just lifted their first piece of silverware in six years.
So how has the Dutchman ushered in a new era so quickly, one that’ll last longer than 10 weeks, 10 Months or even 10 Years1?
I must admit after Brentford I was worried and I did mention De Boer in a tweet that I’ve since deleted because as you know, Twitter loves to repost something you’ve said without the necessary context.
My point is that the team Ten Hag had at his disposal against Brighton and Brentford didn’t have the necessary quality and ‘buy-in’ needed to play his brand of football, which was part of the issue that De Boer faced at Selhurst Park.
This was evident in the centre of the park; Christian Eriksen had been brought in on a free transfer but he couldn’t control the game by himself.
But in just over a week, Ten Hag had solved both problems.
Firstly, he earned the players’ respect. The eight-mile run organised by Ten Hag after the Brentford game was wholeheartedly mocked by rival fanbases, but multiple publications have stated that this was a big moment for his relationship with the squad.
By joining them for the ordeal, he showed that they were in together, which was likely a welcome change from Ralf Rangnick’s weekly debriefs of how bad they all were and how they should be replaced in his press conferences.
Of course, not everybody bought in (and for the sake of my sanity I’m not going to mention his name but you know who I mean) but he was dealt with in due course.
What also became clear was that United was now a meritocracy and day zero was set for when Ten Hag walked through the door. This would be a squad ready to compete in the present, rather than running off the fuel of the past.
And on the 22nd of August, Ten Hag solved his other problem - he signed Casemiro from Real Madrid.
Now since this is my newsletter I’m going to take a moment to clarify something, any issues I had with the Casemiro transfer were not to do with the player’s quality but the circumstances surrounding buying him.
Some did seek to belittle his quality. Graeme Souness famously stated ‘He's not a great player. He has never been a great player.’ That statement proved foolish within one game, let alone now that he has lifted silverware at United to add to his countless trophies at Real Madrid.
My concerns were purely around the deal and whether it showed smart decision-making from United; especially seeing how they had fallen foul of similar outlays in the past and could do again in the future if they followed the same model.
The money involved and contract length seemed inflated for a player his age, despite what he had won at Madrid, and his profile did not match that of Frenkie de Jong, the player that United had spent the entirety of the summer chasing and at the time, the midfielder that it seemed like Casemiro had been signed in place of.
Of course, the questions of longevity will not be answered until much later down the line, but in terms of the here and now the signing of Casemiro has been transformative.
When he signed and based purely on his profile at Real Madrid I described him as a floor securer rather than a ceiling raiser - a player whose reliability and experience would stop the team’s performances from dropping below a certain level.
Casemiro of course has ticked that box, but freed from the shackles of Luka Modric and Toni Kroos (there are quite obviously worse positions to be in), the Brazilian has become an all-action midfielder at Old Trafford and contributed much more going forward (5 goals and 5 assists so far).
This combined with his leadership qualities means he has also raised the ceiling of the side as well. We now refer to the torrid time before his signing as BC (Before Casemiro)… yes I have used that one before but I like it.
Any worry that the 31-year-old had only come to Old Trafford for a paycheck and an easy retirement was also quickly dismissed. Casemiro said after the Carabao Cup win:
"I celebrate like this because I'm enjoying it here. I left a great club, came to England and people wondered why. Moments like these are the answer. We all know this is only the beginning, but it doesn't mean we can't be happy."
Antony was also brought in before the deadline. United had not had a natural right winger since Louis van Gaal converted Antonio Valencia into a right back so this was also a necessary move.
His £85m price tag put a target on his back as it brings with it the heavy weight of expectation, but it’s clear that United play better with him in the side even if he hasn’t found his feet quite yet.
However he did score against Barcelona to knock them out of the Europa League, so I think he’s earned some leeway for the rest of the campaign.2
I would also like to give special mention to Lisandro Martinez even though he was signed before Brentford because he has been truly exceptional (but if you read the first post I wrote for this newsletter, you would have already expected that).
However, the personnel he brought in is only part of the reason for Ten Hag’s success. The manager’s own tactical evolution also should be praised.
It was clear that at the end of the 2021/22 season, neither Solskjaer nor Rangnick had unlocked the potential of the players they had at their disposal.
United could win games but they would rarely dominate them. Lower-level opponents would often cause them several problems as the team struggled to break them down.
So many expected that Ten Hag, who had championed a possession-based philosophy at Ajax (and been very successful in doing so) would be able to implement a similar style at Old Trafford and make it all click.
The issue is that plans don’t often survive their first contact with reality.
The 2-1 loss to Brighton and the 4-0 loss to Brentford showed Ten Hag that copying and pasting his strategies over from the Netherlands was not going to work. He needed to adapt his tactics.
For example, in his Ajax side, Remko Pasveer and Andre Onana’s ability on the ball was incredibly important for how the Dutch Champions built from the back.
David de Gea does not have this ability, so instead of trying to play out under pressure, the Spaniard often boots the ball out long (to varying success) to make sure that the danger stays away from his own net.
Another example is how in recent weeks, Bruno Fernandes has been played out wide which allows him to thrive as a high-volume creator without him being relied on to control possession in the centre of the park.
His tweaks emphasise the players’ strengths while minimising their weaknesses.
And in terms of goals in transition and from counter-attacks, Pauly Kwestel stated how despite the perception that Ten Hag is moving United away from being a counter-attacking side, this is not the case when you look at the numbers (and honestly this isn’t a bad thing).
However, this doesn’t mean that United can’t play possession football when needed.
No goal better shows the football that United can play when they can settle into possession and move the ball around their opponent than Antony’s debut finish against Arsenal at Old Trafford:
Players like Fernandes, Raphael Varane and especially Marcus Rashford have all shown a stark improvement under Ten Hag and the cementing of a clear system is a big reason for that.3
What we are witnessing isn’t the final form of ‘Ten Hag-ball’ nor is it just a lesser form of the style of football he played in the Netherlands. It’s something new, something different; the foundations and principles are still there but it is an evolution in its early stages.
Something I also want to draw attention to before I move on to the final part of this post is how much better United look from set pieces this season.
I think the most obvious way any manager could have improved United in a way that had the most noticeable effect on the scoreline is by making them better at set-piece situations, both offensively and defensively.
140 corners - that’s how many attempts it took before United scored their first goal from one in the 2021/22 campaign. This season in the Premier League they’ve scored three from set-piece situations.
So there is still room for improvement (Tottenham have scored 12) but the fact that United at least look threatening from these situations again is encouraging.
I don’t want to carried away, but I think it’s not controversial to say that it seems that under Ten Hag, United are on the right track for the first time since Sir Alex Ferguson.
Though some of the managers in that time have also won trophies and done a fairly decent job, there was always an expectation that United would hit their ceiling eventually; failing to compete for the Premier League and Champions League.
Under Ten Hag their potential seems limitless. In his open letter to the fans after United’s Carabao Cup win he only stoked the flames further:
“This group has made great strides in the last few months but there is still a lot more to come. I can assure you that everyone at Carrington will be working constantly because we know that this club and you, our supporters, deserve more great days like this.”
Now as I said, I don’t want to get carried away. At the moment, United have only won a Carabao Cup and many factors can cause a manager’s project to derail.
United needs to address their major problems in the summer transfer window and also look to add depth in some areas to build on the momentum from this season.
But one thing is for certain, while at the moment Erik Ten Years is a very unlikely possibility, it is definitely more likely than Erik Ten Months.
I know in the current managerial landscape, a 10-year reign is basically impossible, but it’s provocative and it gets the people going.
Wout Weghorst and Marcel Sabitzer also deserve praise since arriving in January, but I think they have only improved the system rather than being pivotal in the change
Some flowers should also be given to Ten Hag’s coaching staff including Mitchell van der Gaag, Steve McClaren and Benni McCarthy. His team of analysts are also doing incredible work.
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