Folarin Balogun and the Art of Decision Making
The newest US star has another big decision to make.
I originally planned to write this article a few months back focusing on Stade Reims as a whole but I decided that we’d all had enough of hearing about Will Still, his unbeaten run and the fines the club had to pay, so I put it on the back burner until now.
Stade Reims have had a fine season all things considered. They’re no RC Lens who are currently riding high in 2nd place, but they’ve got their most points in a season since 2018/19 with two games left to play so I think that should be celebrated.
A big reason for this has been Arsenal loanee Folarin Balogun, who has scored 19 goals this season in Ligue 1 and registered 2 assists.
Reims as a team have only scored 42 goals, so this means that the young striker has contributed to 50% of the French outlets total.
This form has left the 21-year-old with three major decisions to make - who he will play for internationally, where he will be playing next season and whether that will be as a player who is contracted to Arsenal.
The first has already been answered as Balogun has declared his intention to play for the United States, but just what sort of a player are the USA and whichever club Balogun plays for next season getting?
Well, let’s take a look…
Balogun’s change of allegiance was seen as a coup for the United States given his rising star, but I think the move is more a net positive for the American team than a net loss for England.
Yes, losing a high-potential player is not great, but England will likely have Harry Kane upfront as their main forward for a few more years at least and while they should start thinking about his succession plan as the Tottenham striker has turned 30, it is not their most pressing issue right now.
Also if we’re being honest, it’s probably better for the player if he doesn’t join the likes of Fiyako Tomori in declaring his allegiance to England, only to find himself consistently on the sidelines when there are other options available.
This could have had some bearing on Balogun’s decision but in his statement, he implied that his choice was a personal one. He said:
“It came together with my family. We decided it’d be the right thing for me to represent the country I was born in. In the end, it became a no-brain. It’s just something I wanted to do and it feels like I’m at home here.”
The United States on the other hand were missing a focal point at the Qatar 2022 World Cup and Balogun solves that problem. Put him alongside the likes of Christian Pulisic, Timothy Weah and Yunus Musah and that’s a great attacking system.1
I think he is certainly an upgrade on the likes of Ricardo Pepi and Haji Wright who are not natural goalscorers2 while also offering something different to his now compatriots.
As previously stated, Balogun has 19 league goals this season for Reims. According to Understat he is taking 3.75 shots per 90 minutes played and has an xG of 23.34, meaning he is underperforming by four goals.
Last season he scored three goals from an xG of 3.6 while at Middlesbrough in 891 minutes of senior football after moving there on loan in the middle of the 2021/22 campaign3.
Two seasons are not enough to see a trend draw any clear conclusions, but I think what is encouraging is that in a better team and system, Balogun’s xG has exponentially grown even when you factor in his increased minutes.
You can put a lot of this down to Balogun’s excellent movement in the final third. He has a lot of pace at his disposal but it’s more to do with how he uses it; he identifies and attacks the spaces left by the opposition creating separation from his markers easily.
His goal against Paris Saint Germain showed this, as he burst past Marquinhos, rounded Gianluigi Donnarumma and then slotted it into the net.
However, there are also instances where he identifies when he doesn’t need to use his pace, instead creating space for himself with clever movement. You can see this with his goal against Marseille, where instead of following the defender to the goal line, he holds back and creates acres of space for himself to receive the ball and then shoot in.
He always seems to make the right decision of where and when to move which means that even if he doesn’t receive the ball, he asks questions of the opposition defenders.
Something we must not ignore when it comes to his xG and his goalscoring is the fact that six of his goals have come through penalties, as that will augment both statistics.
It’s not the end of the world, but if he returns to Arsenal or moves elsewhere he may lose these goals if they already have a dedicated penalty-taker.
Away from his goalscoring, Balogun is an excellent pressing forward. He is incredibly important to Reims’ defensive structure as he is the one who starts the French (teams’) press. His ability to time the trigger again shows his intelligence.
To say he is only 21, he is already one of the best if not the best player in Ligue 1 at this and with how important active pressing is in the modern game, this makes him an asset to any team looking to play proactively as well.
If we are searching for something he could improve on, his link-up play is fine but not spectacular. Whether this matters however will depend on the system he plays in.
At Reims, he plays as a more traditional number nine where he has limited touches but they are more impactful and a large majority of them come during transitions.
Balogun only registers on average 28.92 touches per 90 minutes played compared to Gabriel Jesus’ 47.34 but it should be noted that Reims only averages 48.4% possession compared to Arsenal’s 60.5%.
If he was to return to Arsenal and compete for minutes with Jesus, he may be asked to drop deeper in the earlier phases and help work the ball up the pitch.
So what does the future hold for Folarin Balogun?
At the end of this campaign, he will return to his parent club Arsenal where talks will likely be held about his future at the Emirates. Arteta spoke highly of the forward back in February on Arsenal’s official website:
“He’s a boy that has a really clear idea of what he wants to do with his career. He’s really ambitious, really committed and really brave. We discussed a lot before he made that move whether it was the right place to go and the other choices he had. He was so convinced. I’m really happy for him because he deserves what he’s getting.”
So does Balogun have a place in Arteta’s squad next season? Well, you’d expect he does, but it’s whether he wants it.
One complaint that has been lodged at Jesus, who Arsenal signed for £50m last summer, is his lack of goals, but he is still incredibly important to how Mikel Arteta’s side attack so I doubt he will be dropped for Balogun.
This means that the 21-year-old will likely be fighting for minutes with Eddie Nketiah. The 23-year-old has played 1,822 minutes this season which could be ample for a young striker looking to prove himself, but the majority of these came because of Jesus’ injury, so they are not guaranteed.
The (now) American forward has two years remaining on his contract, so Arsenal do not need to sell him, however, if they wait another year to decide (potentially placating him with another loan) they will have to accept a cut-price fee.
Balogun has already shown with his change of allegiance to the United States that regular football means a lot to him, so he could use his raised profile and contract situation to engineer a move away that guarantees this at a club level.
And in an interview that was posted on the official Ligue 1 website, Balogun seemed to imply that his future at Arsenal was not certain. He stated:
"Contractually I have to go back, because the loan was only for one year so that was always the agreement. But I wouldn't, um, I'm not sure what is going to happen in the future.
"A lot could happen in football, a lot could change, and it just depends on the conversations we have between me and the club in the summer, and we'll see what happens."
And if Arsenal do put him up for sale, there will likely be a long list of suitors ready to make an offer.
He could return to Ligue 1 but upgrade to a club who are fighting for European football and potentially the title. Marseille have been heavily linked with a move and they would be a great destination for Balogun and act as a good step up.
AC Milan have also been linked and personally, I think this is the perfect move for him. Rafa Leao has re-signed with the Italian club meaning he would already have a great creative partner waiting for him at the San Siro and the Rossoneri need a new number nine to replace Olivier Giroud as the regular starter.
There could also be Premier League clubs interested in a transfer (looking at you Brentford) but you’d assume Arsenal would be reluctant to strengthen a team they would have to face in regular competition.
Overall, Balogun is an incredibly exciting talent and one that has shown a great amount of promise in a short time. I’m glad he has made the best decision for his international future and I’m sure he’ll make the correct one for his club future as well.
Whether it’s on or off the pitch, Balogun’s decision-making is improving day by day.
Giovanni Reyna would also be included here but that depends on whether his parents behave themselves.
Pepi was when he was coming through in the MLS, but since his move to Europe, his goalscoring rate has tanked.
This could be considered a bad decision given how bad Middlesbrough were when Balogun joined, but everyone makes mistakes (and it wasn’t entirely his).
Stats are from FBref