Mailbag - Lazio's Serie A Success, Manchester United's future and which Championship Club could succeed in the Premier League
Answering your question from last week's mailbag.
There are three questions to answer for our inaugural mailbag, so instead of wasting time let’s get straight into it.
Mathieu asked:
Realistically what do you think United need to sustain a title challenge next season? Not just players but off the pitch as well
I touched a lot on what Manchester United can do on the pitch in my latest article: ‘What do Manchester United need to do in the summer transfer window?’, so you can read my thoughts on transfer business there.
I also state in that article how I believe that United will not be ready for a title challenge next season. Things can move fast in football, but given United need starting options and depth (you can see how Arsenal are beginning to falter because of this last part as well), I don’t think they will be ready.
However, something I didn’t mention in that article is what needs to happen off the field.
It is clear that Erik ten Hag is the right option in the dugout and his core coaching staff are solid. Maybe a few additions here and there to beef up the analytics and specific training side may be needed, but nothing major.
Most of the significant changes need to come higher up the chain. This will of course be massively influenced by who holds the keys to United once this ownership saga is over; be it Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad al-Thani, Sir Jim Ratcliffe or, and this still is a real possibility, the Glazer Family.
I am still unsure whether John Murtough is the man to lead United’s football operation and some would suggest that a more experienced, bigger-name option should take his place.
But even if he stays I feel United’s culture needs to be overhauled when it comes to scouting. It needs to be made completely separate from the manager (so it can operate if he is sacked or he wants to move on1) and United need to identify talents earlier and take risks.
As a final point, I also feel like more should be done to implement a similar style of football throughout all of United’s teams - from the first team down to the youngest academy squads. This will help more academy players progress up the ranks.
There have been reports that this is something Ten Hag wants to happen, but I think it should be one of the club’s priorities rather than a pipe dream.
Also just to touch on the Women’s team as well. With them competing for the title this season, United must give them the resources to maintain that. Give them the money they need to retain Alessia Russo and Ona Batlle and also to improve their squad next season.
Alex Donaldson asks:
Which, if any, of the teams in the championship gunning for promotion do you think actually has it in them to stay up next season considering the state of the bottom half of the Prem atm?
With a handful of games left to play, it’s still all to play for nearly half the league when it comes to who will get promoted to the Premier League next season.
Burnley are the only team currently guaranteed promotion and I would say that they have a good chance of staying up on paper, especially if Vincent Kompany remains as manager and the ownership continues to support his rebuild at Turf Moor.
My only worry is that Burnley are in a position where many have failed before; they have thrived being the strongest team in the Championship playing a possession brand of football, but once they get promoted and are no longer a big fish in a small pond they could struggle (see Norwich City).
Sheffield United are currently second and with a win on Wednesday they could all but confirm their place in the Premier League next season. No offence to Paul Heckingbottom’s side, but I think they head straight back down next year.2
This leaves the final spot that will be decided through the playoffs and a lot of teams are in contention.
The issue for many of these sides is their squads are not Premier League quality and they will not have the funds available to make a significant investment in the squad.
For example, Luton will have to spend £10m to upgrade their stadium just to get it up to Premier League standards. Blackburn are also losing their best asset for free this summer as Ben Brereton Diaz is joining Villarreal.
Sunderland are probably the only team here that will be in a position to spend (and by that I mean spend while retaining financial stability) but even that doesn’t guarantee success.
As much as it pains me to say this, Millwall could be a curveball if they ever do go up. Intangibles always have the potential to disrupt the status quo; The Den is a hard ground for any team to go to and their style of football has always been more defensive so they wouldn’t have to massively adapt moving up to the Premier League.3
But Alex is right, this season has been a mess regarding relegation with several teams threatened with the drop, but I think next season it will stabilise a bit.
I believe that many of these teams can’t make as many bad decisions consecutively as they have done this season, but who knows? Maybe we’re in for another competition of ‘Who can be the most unserious club possible’.
In terms of who I think is going to win the playoffs, I think Middlesbrough have a very good chance. They have improved massively under Michael Carrick and have a real identity now but they did lose to Luton tonight so it’s anyone’s guess.
Coventry could also make a push but I think regardless of what happens to them during the playoffs, we will see Viktor Gyökeres in the Premier League next season as he is an exceptional talent.
Michael Tuohy asked:
In say, a Spaghetti Bolognese, what's the right sauce to meat ratio?
Also, Lazio, despite being 2nd place in Serie A currently, seem further away from a proper title charge than ever. Coming towards the end of the lifespan their current squad, how do you think they should go about the next few seasons? Trying to get the best out of the final years of the players they have, or reloading for the future?
In answer to your first question Michael, there’s not a precise ratio but you want enough sauce to coat all the pasta and meat but not drown it. Now onto Lazio.
I was planning on writing something about Lazio or at least talking about them on my podcast The Serie A-sly Good Podcast that I host with Danny Corcoran sometime soon, but I will talk about some of my thoughts here.
Lazio have been great this season; they deservedly sit second and after a few seasons they finally seem to be playing Sarri-ball fluidly and consistently.
Mattia Zaccagni has been one of their best performers and Alessio Romagnoli has been incredible defensively after joining for free from AC Milan in the summer.
They have the joint-best defence in the league with Napoli, conceding only 21 goals and have scored 49 down the other end. This finds them in 2nd with seven matches left to play.
So why does Michael now think that this could be their peak and it’s only downhill from here?
Lazio have an older squad, however; the second oldest after Inter Milan (who will also need a rebuild this summer) with an average age of 28.1 and this means that in the next few years, they will need a massive overhaul.
I think they might be ok despite this, at least in the immediate future.
Due to injury and a general lack of fitness, Lazio have played a decent chunk of this season without Ciro Immobile who has been Serie A’s top scorer in three out of the last five seasons. This is already giving Sarri ideas about what to do in life after the veteran Italian striker.
Other key players that are 30 and over currently include Luis Alberto, Patric, Felipe Anderson, Mattias Vecino, Pedro and Adam Marusic. I wouldn’t consider any of these players ‘sellable assets’ unless someone *really* wants Alberto but overall, Lazio should continue to count on them next season4.
I think the biggest question for Lazio comes with Sergej Milinkovic Savic. His 6 goals and 8 assists in
At 28 years old, I think this is the player to which Michael’s question applies. The Serbian midfielder is the heart of this team and I feel if Lazio want to make a push for the title or retain Champions League football next season he should be a big part of it.
I think Lazio’s best option is to keep him for one more season and use the Champions League money (if they finish in the top four of course) they receive to sign a new striker, another winger, another midfielder for depth and a central defender.
Then next season they can sell hopefully sell Milinkovic-Savic and use the money to both replace him and continue to bring in improvements to their squad.
It’s the halfway house between the two ideas that Michael suggested but I think that it is probably the smartest idea.
I don’t think they will challenge for the title any time soon but challenging for a Champions League place should be their regular goal, and who knows, things might go their way.
Thank you all for reading and your questions, I really enjoyed writing this one (even if Michael did preempt an article I wanted to write).
There will be another paid newsletter at the end of the week as usual and probably another over the bank holiday weekend. April has been a hectic month so I’m glad that I’ve been able to keep my uploads to a regular schedule.
See you all then and thanks again for subscribing.
This isn’t specifically regarding Erik ten Hag but any manager at Old Trafford in the future as well.
Anel Ahmedhodžić is an exceptional defender and I expect someone to pick him up either this summer or next when Sheffield United get relegated.
They could also suck really, really bad because I think that the Millwall team is a Championship side, but we all saw what Sheffield United did in the past.
Pedro might leave but I think they were prepared for him to age out.