My Premier League Predictions for the 2023/24 season
Ok let's do this one last time (it's never the last time).
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Now that’s all out of the way, let’s get into it….
The Premier League is right around the corner and you know what that means. It’s time for me to put my foot in my mouth again with another set of ill-thought-out predictions.
I didn’t do too badly last year (Scott Parker thank you for your sacrifice) but I think we can do better in the 2023/24 campaign. So with that in mind, I believe that’s enough lead in so let’s just fast forward to the predictions.
Erling Haaland will not break 30 goals (again)
Everyone (except Rory Jennings) expected Haaland to come into the Premier League and hit the ground running, but I don’t think that anyone expected that he would break the Premier League scoring record in his first season.
Haaland scored 36 goals, eclipsing the 34 scored by Andy Cole and Alan Shearer back in the 1990s (both strikers also scored their record-breaking totals in 42-game seasons) easily.
So can he do it again this year?
Well short answer, I don’t think he can. I believe that this season many teams will implement their own ‘Jordan Rules’ to deal with Haaland and try and negate his impact.
Fouling, specific man marking, double teaming etc etc. City will still score goals through other means, with this in mind I’d like to add an added prediction that Julian Alvarez will score 16+ in the league, but Haaland will act more as the decoy rather than the tip of the spear.
Don’t get me wrong, I still think he’ll rack up a strong total, potentially even the highest tally in the league, I just think he won’t crack 30 goals in this campaign.
There’s going to be another Relegation Race…
Last season we saw record levels of unserious behaviour from teams hoping to stay in the Premier League.
Southampton sacked their manager twice while signing academy players and crashed out spectacularly, while teams such as West Ham, Everton, Leicester and Leeds United looked like they were trying to outdo each other with worse and worse decisions.
And given the state of the decision-making that has occurred in this summer’s transfer window, I believe that we’re in for another relegation race again this season.
Luton have mainly targeted players who wouldn’t look out of place in the Championship or League 1. Yes they have a reduced budget compared to the rest of the league and that’s reflected in the deals, but it seems like they’re preparing to go straight back down.
West Ham, Everton and Wolves seem to have a self-destructive desire not to address the biggest issues in their teams despite two of them receiving massive fees for key midfielders this summer.
And there is always the chance that Burnley’s possession-based style of play as the best team in the Championship does not translate well to the Premier League where they are a small fish in a bigger pond (aka doing a Norwich).
But with all this in mind, I think there is one team that we can all agree will go down at the end of this season….
… And Sheffield United are going down
Sheffield United are going down. That’s it, that’s the prediction.
Oh, you wanted more than that? That’s why you clicked on this newsletter? Well, I’ll give it to you then.
The team that won Sheffield United's promotion to the Premier League was not great. It was the epitome of ‘this is the ceiling to their quality’. There were only three players that this didn’t apply to - Anel Ahmedhodzic, Sander Berge and Iliman Ndiaye.
The issue with this statement is that only Ahmedhodzic remains. Berge has moved to now Premier League rivals Burnley and Ndiaye forced a move to Olympique Marseille.
Their incomings have done little to inspire my confidence that they will be able to overcome losing their two best players. Gustavo Hamer is a nice signing but I don’t expect he will be enough.
I think it’s going to be a rough campaign for Paul Heckingbottom’s side and I expect them to finish rock bottom of the Premier League at the end of Matchday 38.
Bournemouth will finish in the Top 10
Bournemouth have big ambitions and it looks like they have the money to make it happen.
Of the business done in January, Dango Outtara from FC Lorient was one of my favourite signings. He added some much-needed energy to Bournemouth’s attack while providing one goal and three assists.
And it seems that Bournemouth have continued this trend of signing young exciting players bringing in Milos Kerkez and Alex Scott while adding some quality with Justin Kluivert and Max Aarons.
But these signings aren’t even the most important factor when it comes to my prediction that the south coast club will finish in the top 10. It’s their appointment of manager Andoni Iraola.
The former Athletic Bilbao right-back turned coach made a name for himself at Rayo Vallecano with an exciting brand of football. Over his three-year tenure, he was promoted from the Segunda Division before finishing 12th and then 11th in his two seasons in La Liga.
It is an astute appointment and one that could have a massive upside for Bournemouth as Iraola continues to develop his style while being backed in the market by his new club.
And speaking of Bournemouth managers….
Gary O’Neil will not last the season
What Gary O’Neil achieved with Bournemouth last season against all odds was incredibly impressive… but not repeatable.
Here’s where Bournemouth ranked in Expected metrics:
Expected Goals, 17th with 40.08 (Actual goals 37)
Expected Goals Against, 16th with 67.60 (Actual goals against 71)
Expected Points, 20th with 34.73 (Actual points 39)
This is not great and while they did underperform in some metrics, this was still a bad return in a league that was much weaker than usual (as we discussed earlier).
Someone much smarter than me (I believe it was Grace Robertson) pointed out that one thing that benefitted Bournemouth is that they didn’t draw that many games (6 in total, joint 2nd lowest in the league), which means they earned the extra points here or there that they needed to survive.
So with all that in mind and with Wolves in crisis, it seems unlikely that Gary O’Neil will be able to repeat his heroics after taking the hot seat at Molineux.
And given Wolves’ penchant for sacking managers, I would expect that he doesn’t see out the season in charge of the team.
Ivan Toney will still hit double figures in Premier League goals
Not too much to say here that I expect after his ban Ivan Toney will come back into the league with something to prove and a fire stoked inside him.
The English striker scored 18 goals last season for Brentford and I think that it isn’t outlandish to think that he can hit at least 10 when he returns to Premier League action later this year.
The new Added Time rule will decide the Premier League Title
Whether this prediction will be fulfilled is purely subjective but I thought the new extra time rule needed to get a mention here.
To reduce the effectiveness and therefore dissuade time wasting, the Premier League have adopted similar extra time rules to the 2022 World Cup, where stoppages are charted much more thoroughly throughout the game and then added at the end, usually resulting in 8+ minutes at least.
If you want to read some of my thoughts on it during the World Cup then you can do so here.
What I’m saying is that it is the nature of football to err into drama. And with that in mind, you would expect that an important game is going to be decided by a goal that is scored deep into extra time; potentially past 100 minutes.
Harry Maguire will score a winner against Manchester United
See the previous entry about it is the nature of football to err into drama and remember it when Manchester United play West Ham home and away1.
Aston Villa will finish in at least the Europa Spots
I’ve said it for a while now that while Newcastle have been getting all the attention for splashing the cash and making waves in the Premier League, Aston Villa have been standing behind them quietly building their project.
They have appointed a top European manager in Unai Emery who led the team to a 7th placed finish and UEFA Conference League football and this has allowed them to get even more creative with their recruitment.
On top of Boubacar Kamara, who they signed for a free last summer, and Diego Carlos, they have now added Pau Torres, Moussa Diaby and Youri Tielesmans to the mix.
With Tottenham losing Kane, Chelsea still in flux and the potential for any of the other teams in the current top six to drop off, they could find themselves in the Europa League spots come season's end.
Julio Enciso will be Young Player of the Season
Julian Enciso is a wonderful player and Brighton have got themselves an absolute gem.
The young Paraguayan forward made an impact last season, scoring three goals in 20 Premier League appearances including scoring the goal of the season; a nice move by Brighton that was finished off with a wonder strike from Enciso.
Also according to Liam Tharme from the Athletic, for players that played over 600 minutes, Enciso ranked in the top three for dribbles completed and shots taken.
If the Brighton forward can build on this breakout season in the 2023/24 campaign, then he will be up there in the nominations for the Premier League Young Player of the Season.
Well, that’s all my predictions. Hopefully, whatever team you support you can enjoy the Premier League at some point this season.
I’ll see you all at the end of the season to recap these and see how horrifically wrong I was.
Also they now have James Ward Prowse on set pieces, so make of that what you will.
Burnley’s prediction going alright but Gary O’Neil with Wolves definitely isn’t going as predicted ðŸ«