Southampton's struggles and why you can't always win with kids
Southampton have had a youth heavy transfer policy in the last few years but it hasn't worked out, and now major clubs are circling to pick up the remnants.
“I think they've got problems. I wouldn't say they've got major problems. Obviously, three players have departed. The trick is always buy when you're strong, so he needs to buy players. You can't win anything with kids.” - Alan Hansen speaking about Manchester United’s Class of ‘92
With eight games left in the Premier League, it seems like Southampton are destined for the drop.
They are only five points from safety sitting on 23 points, so they could still mathematically climb to safety, but I think most fans would agree that after the season that the South Cast side has had, they would deserve relegation if it arrives at the end of the season.
It has been a season of misfires for Southampton; their strategy has been scattergun and without direction. This has not improved as the club’s aim changed from trying to thrive to trying to survive.
At the time the decision to sack Ralph Hassenhuttl seemed like the right one. After the comically disastrous reign of Nathan Jones, however, it may have been better to stick with the Austrian manager rather than rely on Ruben Selles to guide them out of danger.
And this catastrophic venture has not been a cheap one. Southampton have had a net spend of just over £120m this season; the results of which you can see on the pitch (or not if you’re hoping to see Joe Aribo with his 37 league minutes in 2023).
Despite their struggles, the sharks are beginning to circle. Teams are watching their careers with great interest.
However, it is usually the case in these scenarios, that one or two lucky warriors are the subject of everyone’s interest; the jewels in the crown who deserves to be saved from the second tier.
On this occasion; it seems like Southampton might have a footballing bank run on their hands; several players have the vultures circling and salivating.
So just how did this happen?
Before we get started, I just want to say that if Everton stays up, they will sign Che Adams. I have never been more certain of something in my life and I will not elaborate any further (at least on this point specifically).
Over the past couple of years, the major pillar of Southampton’s transfer policy has been very simple - bring in young players who are either undervalued by their current club or at a club too small for their ability.
This has seen the likes of Moussa Djenepo, Walker-Peters, Mohammed Salisu, Ibrahim Diallo and Tino Livramento arrive at St Mary’s.
The strategy hasn’t really paid off in the league, with an 11th-placed finish in 2019/20 followed by back-to-back 15th-placed finishes. But Southampton have been able to stockpile talent efficiently and Premier League money has meant they have been able to hold onto them1.
This season, however, it is safe to say that Southampton kicked it into overdrive.
They signed eight players this season who are either 20 years old or younger. Of these eight players, seven have made at least 10 appearances and five have made at least 20.
They have become core members of the squad almost immediately and in the case of Gavin Bazunu, Armel Bella Kotchap, Romeo Lavia, Carlos Alcaraz and Kalamadeen Sulemana2, regular starters.
There is such a thing as having too much of a good thing, however. Yes, it’s great having several exciting young talents at your disposal, but when they oversaturate your squad while they are both trying to find their feet as players and as part of your team, then you are going to have problems.
Naive and inexperienced are the labels I would use for Southampton this season. There’s undoubted talent there, but not enough experience. For me, the biggest problem for Selles’ side is their inability to adapt how they play to different game states.
Oriel Romeu was a big part of how Southampton saw out games in previous years, but he departed for Girona last summer. Romeo Lavia has impressed but he doesn’t have the Spanish midfielder’s in-game know-how; that will hopefully come with time.
However even at 18 years old, Lavia’s ability and potential are clear for all to see.
He is incredibly comfortable on the ball and displays a lot of the qualities top teams are looking for in a ball-progressing midfielder. The discount they will get if Southampton gets relegated can also not be sniffed at in an inflated market.
Take him out of the chaos of Southampton and surround him with a competent system and group of players and he will be able to thrive as part of the unit consistently. Flowers need the best conditions to grow and all that.
This is where the circling teams are seeing their opportunity and also learning from Southampton’s mistakes. They are all looking at picking up one or two and slowly implementing them into a lower-pressure environment.
This not only applies to Lavia but also to Bazunu, Bella-Kotchap, Livramento Alcaraz etc. They will thrive in an environment where the focus is on them developing alongside more experienced peers rather than performing week in and week out to secure survival.
So what will the summer look like for Southampton if they go down?
To begin with, let’s talk about the aforementioned jewels in the crown.
James Ward Prowse has been consistently linked with a move away from St Mary’s over the past few years and his stock has only continued to rise as his set pieces have become more and more dangerous. He will probably be first in line for the lifeboat off the Titanic.
Also in the bracket of ‘Players who definitely should not be heading to the Championship because they’ve proved themselves in the Premier League for multiple years’ is Kyle Walker-Peters.
Since his move from Tottenham in 2020, he has proved himself as a capable presence at right-back. At 25 and with two years left on his deal, you’d expect that at least a midtable club will be looking to agree a reasonable deal for the defender this summer (though he can play for some of the best).
Nathan Tella will also be hot property in the summer, though I was unsure whether to include him because his stock has risen purely through his loan spell with Burnley.
Before he went to Turf Moor he was considered an ineffective winger, but during the 2022/23 Championship season, he has turned into a deadly forward scoring 17 goals in 36 league appearances.
Whether he returns to Burnley in the summer or another club comes in for him we will have to wait and see, but it seemed his time at St Mary’s was up before this season, so I doubt he will still be there come close of play in September.
You could also probably include Mohammed Salisu here as well, who has been heavily linked with Newcastle in recent weeks, but I think this hasn’t been a great season for him.
However, three/four players do not make a ‘fire sale’ and it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to see this sort of an ‘exodus’ alongside some other higher wage/lesser ability players who a relegated side needs to get off their books3.
No, the young players will also be targeted as well.
Lavia seems almost certain to leave in the summer window. Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United have all been heavily linked with the Belgian midfielder. His former club Manchester City hold a £40m buyback clause, but it doesn’t activate till 2024; however, if they want to keep hold of the 18-year-old they may also join the bidding war.
Despite Bazunu’s season in front of the football equivalent of a firing squad, he is still seen as one of the top goalkeeping prospects in Europe. Will he stay at St Mary’s for another season as number one to try and raise his prestige or will he take the opportunity to move to another Premier League club when many will be looking for a goalkeeper?
Livramento’s stock was incredibly high before his injury. His season out could mean he remains at Southampton while clubs assess whether he is the same player he was before suffering an ACL, but a club could take a punt on him given the circumstances.
I also feel like there will be a market for Bella Kotchap. He is obviously a talented young defender and would fit nicely into the squad of several Premier League teams whether as a starter or a rotation option off the bench who can develop into a starting XI option.
While I was writing this piece, Alan Hansen’s famous ‘You can’t win anything with kids’ rant played on my mind (hence its inclusion at the start of this piece), because although the origin point of those young players is different, the thinking is still the same.
Hansen’s rant focused on his belief that Ferguson had made a mistake in replacing experience with youth, much like Southampton did this season in buying mainly exciting prospects with only a couple of experienced players joining the fold (but they have hardly played).
The issue with the former Liverpool defender’s claim, when it came to United, is he was so focused on the influx he didn’t pay attention to the core of players they were joining - the likes of Eric Cantona, Denis Irwin, Roy Keane, Peter Schmeichel, Andy Cole, Gary Pallister and Steve Bruce.
The Class of ‘92s were incredibly talented individuals given the space to breathe in a team full of leaders and future Premier League legends, and they thrived. This is a luxury Southampton did not allow themselves to afford.
So what does this situation mean for Southampton going forward?
A relegation will hit them hard, but they will still be able to reap the fruits of their labour; even if it’s not to the degree they would have been able to if they remain in the Premier League.
Any player from this ‘youth revolution’ they do sell will likely sell for a profit (Sulemana notwithstanding as I feel they paid a premium in January to try and secure survival). This financial injection will hopefully help pave their way back to their Premier League.
The players that do get sold will likely mature and develop into Premier League-standard or even Champions League-standard players at their new club.
But let’s move away from the doom and gloom for just a minute and offer somewhat of a hot take - Southampton might benefit from a season in the Championship if they get their house in order.
Taking the time to refocus their project and appoint the right manager to lead them is important. Then under this new steward, the younger talents who remain will hopefully be able to develop in a lower-quality league (though players will need to be brought in so that the weight of expectation for promotion isn’t fully put on their shoulders).
It’s a short-term loss for Southampton, but it may be a long-term win for all involved.
Timing is everything, and while looking to secure a number of youth players before their prices skyrocketed was a clever move (see Brighton), doing it while your first-team squad is declining in quality is putting the cart before the horse.
Overall, increasing youth recruitment was a good idea executed poorly, but it could still bear fruit for Southampton. They just might have to suffer the indignity of relegation first.
Southampton in 2023 may not be able to win anything with kids… but who knows what their future will hold.
One of the biggest downsides for Southampton is they were not very good at selling while their players’ stocks were high, and now if they drop into the Championship they will struggle to get the fees they could have done if they sold earlier.
Alcaraz and Sulemana are not included in the players who have made 20 appearances but they only arrived in January.
Duje Caleta Car, Lyanco and Mislav Orsic come on down.