The unstable lifespan of a Premier League football manager
You either die a Pochettino team or live long enough to see yourself become a Dyche team
I was having a chat with Carl Anka the other day and he mentioned that while at Totally Football Live (because he’s ‘big time’ he gets invited to these sorts of things1), author Michael Cox made an interesting point.
He had stated that bar Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp, every manager’s job in the Premier League was at risk during the 2022/23 season and if you do part ways with your manager you’re either a Mauricio Pochettino team or a Sean Dyche team.
Now it’s a sweeping statement that I don’t agree with in its entirety, but regardless it got me thinking and I decided to give it a go.
So let’s discuss the three (yes three because I feel there’s another manager he forgot) tiers:
The Luis Enrique tier: The big fish of the group. Enrique is reserved for a handful of top sides, who if they are going to part ways with their manager, will most likely do it later in the season (partly because the current Spain manager will not be available until after the World Cup).
The Mauricio Pochettino tier: Most clubs realistically want to be in this tier. He is still a good manager despite his issues in his previous job at Paris Saint-Germain, and he will be looking for a good project to rebuild his slightly shaken reputation. Teams that have a lot of talent but need to find a way to make them into an elite cohesive unit fall into this tier.
The Sean Dyche tier: This is probably the broadest tier in terms of quality; if you’re a Premier League team and you want to stay that way but are struggling, Dyche is the man you should be looking at. But he is also an old-school English manager, able to create a rigid structure which allows 3-4 talented players to thrive and some teams higher up the table could also benefit from him.
Before we begin I must stress, that the tiers aren’t wholly to do with the quality of teams and as you will see as the article unfolds, some managers are just better fits for certain squads (so please don’t get offended).
So bar Manchester City, Liverpool and I’m going to say Tottenham (because if Conte leaves it will be of his own accord), let’s have a look at every Premier League team and see who would be their replacement manager:
AFC Bournemouth - Dyche before the World Cup
The alphabetically first club in the Premier League are the team I think will also be the first to lose their manager this season.
Though Bournemouth won their opener they are likely going to struggle this season and Scott Parker is going to be a casualty (as I mentioned in my Premier League predictions for the 2021/22 season).
Dyche would likely be top of the list given his work at Burnley and I feel the player he would improve most is Dominic Solanke, turning him into an Ings-like ‘bags-man’.
Arsenal - Enrique close to the end of the season
The first team that falls into that top bracket. As one of the historic top six, they have lofty ambitions and a highly talented young team to help them realise them.
The question is whether Mikel Arteta is the coach to take them there2. If Arsenal doesn’t look like they’re going to make the top four and secure a Champions League place this season they could look to get the best guy on the market ahead of the 2023/24 campaign.
Enrique would move the Arsenal side into his preferred 4-3-3 formation, and while the forward line would likely improve significantly I feel if Granit Xhaka remains he would see the best form of his career as a metronome in the middle.
Aston Villa - Dyche before Christmas
As much as Aston Villa are aspiring to be a team that someone like Pochettino would manage, they are firmly in the Dyche category. Steven Gerrard has failed to make his mark so far and with a number of high-profile signings this summer he’s going to be under pressure to make a push for a top half finish.
Villa have some good players, but lacks cohesion and defensive stability; Dyche would solve that. I feel like Lucas Digne and John McGinn would enjoy it if Villa tried to get more out of their corners and free kicks as well.
Brentford - It’s Dyche but they should be thinking about someone like Pochettino in the future
I don’t think Brentford will part ways with Thomas Frank regardless of what happens, given his affinity with the players and the fans, but if Brentford wanted to take the next step, they should take notes from Southampton in finding their own Pochettino to take the next step in a few years.
For now, though they’re a Dyche team, with their tricky set pieces and physical squad. The front line of Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbuemo are also ready-made for the Englishman’s brand of football.
Brighton - Pochettino whenever someone realises Potter should be at a bigger club
Graham Potter is an excellent manager who angered the gods of xG and has been cursed with eternal bad luck, otherwise, his Brighton side would be pushing for a European place on a regular basis.
Someone will notice that at some point and snap Potter up. When he leaves, Brighton can’t afford to take a step back so they should be aiming for a manager like Pochettino (arguably a younger Pochettino when he first was entering into the Premier League with tons of fresh and bright ideas).
Brighton’s wingbacks have always shone under Potter and I’d expect Tariq Lamptey to continue to shine under a manager like Pochettino.
Chelsea - Enrique in February
Of all the teams you would consider ‘safe’ from relegation, I think Thomas Tuchel has one of the most unstable positions in the Premier League.
New owner Todd Boehly seems to be ready to spend close to £300m this summer and he will want something in return, but towards the end of last season and in their opening matches Chelsea hasn’t looked like they have any idea what to do going forward.
If he is struggling both domestically and in Europe, I expect the rumour mill to start turning and Enrique to be linked, and if he does arrive at Stamford Bridge players like Raheem Sterling (the only attacker I currently feel is guaranteed to start) will thrive.
Crystal Palace - Pochettino when the team that couldn’t get Potter goes for Patrick Vieira
What Vieira has done at Palace is impressive, so this section is very much the same as the Brighton one. Once the Frenchman moves on they need to maintain the same level of inspired coaching rather than taking a step back.
I doubt Jordan Ayew will survive the swap, but others like Michael Olise will only go from strength to strength.
Everton - Dyche as soon as possible
Everton are bad, real bad. We can debate until the cows come home whether Frank Lampard is at fault but given the situation, he is not the man who is going to solve their problems and get them out of this mess.
Dyche at least gives them a fighting chance. Of all the moves I’ve suggested here, this is the one I expect to happen the most and I think it will happen before the World Cup. Against Aston Villa, Everton tried to defend but didn’t offer much going forward until the closing moments and this is unsustainable.
The defence will look better under Dyche and much more secure. A deeper and more structured line will also get the best out of Jordan Pickford.
Fulham - Dyche whenever Mitrovic stops scoring
Fulham’s opener against Liverpool was a freak result, but I don’t expect them to have it easy this season. Mitrovic is their only goal threat and in previous seasons in the Premier League, he has never managed double figures.
So when the Serbian stops scoring Fulham will struggle to find the goals elsewhere and this could lead to Marco Silva getting the boot; this paves the way for Dyche to come in and try and play Mitrovic in a two-striker formation.
Leeds United - Pochettino when it becomes an ‘American Nightmare’
Leeds were the hardest team for me to categorise here. They obviously have the players and ambitions to be a Pochettino team, but after losing Marcelo Bielsa they look void of a lot of structure.
I do think that the intense pathway of Bielsa’s to Jesse Marsch’s football lends itself better to a Pochettino-Esque manager (plus Bielsa to Poch is just football heritage), and if the American begins to struggle again after a season where the club have spent a lot (a running theme) then they could look to make a change.
Patrick Bamford would do very well under the Argentinian as well.
Leicester - Dyche for Christmas
Now you’re probably looking at this and thinking ‘Casey, Dyche really? After you just said Poch for Brentford and Leeds’, let me explain.
Leicester are potentially heading for a very dangerous period. They haven’t signed any players this summer (I’m not counting Alex Smithies) and key players are likely to depart in the future; Jamie Vardy as he retires and Youri Tielemans as his contract expires.
This means that Leicester could drop fast, so they need someone who can give them stability over the next few seasons, especially when other Premier League clubs start poaching their other good players (see Wesley Fofana and Kieran Dewsbury-Hall). Dyche would offer that but I can’t say who he’d improve because I honestly don’t know who will remain.
Manchester United - Enrique when Erik ten Hag gets thrown under the bus
The transfer window has not closed but United are still yet to solve their midfield, but that is just the tip of the iceberg of problems that Ten Hag will have to deal with this season.
The hope is United give Ten Hag time to try and implement his style of football, but the club are clinging onto relevance while their rivals surpass them. This could force them to again look for a ‘quick fix’ if they can get it, and this could involve a change of personnel if the situation demands it.
Enrique was on United’s shortlist before Ten Hag was appointed (but he would not leave Spain before the World Cup), so if United are struggling later in the season they could try and get him again.
If he is appointed Lisandro Martinez will be one of Ten Hag’s signings who will continue to be relevant, given his excellent ball-playing ability. The major question is, however, does Ten Hag last till after the World Cup given how badly United have faired in their first two matches and how inactive the club seem to be about doing something about it?
Newcastle United - Pochettino when Howe has finished building the foundations
I really like the job that Eddie Howe has done at Newcastle and he deserves to get a good move when he finally parts ways with the Tyneside club, but there has always felt like there is an expiry date on the Englishman’s tenure.
Newcastle wants to go to the very top and to do that they need an elite manager. They probably won’t be able to get someone like Enrique but Poch would relish the project and so once Howe has got the band together, he’ll likely have to step aside.
This is again, a move I see happening at some point or at least a move that is discussed, and if Pochettino was to join he would almost certainly build his team around Bruno Guimaraes.
Nottingham Forest - Dyche when the new signings don’t gel
Forest have signed 15 players (I’ve had to change this four times during writing this article), the majority of which could all have a role in the starting XI, and they are planning even more transfers.
It makes sense given that they were a decent Championship side carried by some very good loans, but the issue is will these new players gel together under Steve Cooper?
If it doesn’t happen and Forest are staring relegation down the barrel, they could turn to Dyche, but don’t ask me who he’ll improve because most of these players haven’t got more than 90 minutes for the team yet.
Southampton - A Pochettino Reunion by Christmas? No Dyche it is.
With Ralph Hassenhuttl’s contract expiring at the end of the 2023/24 season and the manager stating he may retire after that, it seems unlikely that Southampton will part ways with him.
The club has put itself in a precarious situation though by signing several young players. It could be smart in long term, but they also needed to add experienced names to their team as well to solve more immediate problems. And if they fall too close to the relegation zone, they could look to bring in a new manager.
Southampton would love to bring in someone like Pochettino but I think they are a few years away from that, so someone like Dyche would be able to steady to ship while those players develop. James Ward-Prowse would likely leave but you can see someone like Nathan Redmond becoming a striker a la Jay Rodriguez.
West Ham United - Hot Take, they’re a Dyche team
This is the team I had in mind when I said ‘the tiers are not to do with quality’, but current West Ham are Dyche’s Burnley with a budget (and that’s not just because they signed Maxwell Cornet).
Both squads have similar profiles and similar styles of play (cross, cross and cross again) so the shift from David Moyes to Dyche would be seamless. Dyche has also shown that he can get into the European places with a much worse team so he could match West Ham’s ambition.
However, Moyes seems to have a lot of faith behind him at West Ham so I doubt they’ll part ways with him any time soon.
But if they were to make a change in the dugout, Jarrod Bowen and Declan Rice would both work well under Dyche and fit well into his 442 formation, though the defence might need a little work.
Wolverhampton Wanderers - Pochettino when Jose Sa stops saving everything
Another weekend, another top-notch Jose Sa performance; this time he saved a penalty from Alexander Mitrovic to secure the draw for Bruno Lage’s side. Pedro Neto should have also scored, but it seems apparent from their first two games, that if Wolves start conceding they might struggle to get back into fixtures.
I think Wolves are at the very bottom of the Pochettino bracket but I think their owners will want to go for someone more high-profile than Dyche, and while they will need some signings, they still have a good group of talented players and a lot who fit the Argentinian’s style of play.
Neto is one player who would thrive but Ruben Neves would finally get a defined role which truly fits his strengths under Pochettino and then maybe they could push for a Europa League position.
So that’s the end of this weird thought experiment. I thoroughly enjoyed writing that so you can expect a few more of these at some point in the future.
Do you agree with my reasoning? Where do you think Enrique, Pochettino and Dyche will end up this season (or next summer)? Let me know in the comments below.
I told him I wrote this and he laughed and assures me all he did was buy a ticket like everyone else
I’ve always said that Arsenal and Arteta’s limit was Top 4, so let’s see if he hits it this season.
Very interesting analysis.
Could you do a similar one for this ongoing season?
Also, who would be the substitutes for Poch, Enrique and Dyche, since they all have found clubs now?
Really interesting thought experiment this. Very surprised by how much you feel Poch’s stock has fallen.
De Zerbi and Rose, you would think, probably good bets for those “better than Dyche, not good enough for Poch” clubs.
Martinez surely leaving Belgium after the WC, but can’t really picture him anywhere.